it's all on karl, his blackberry, and 4 million evangelical christians

this is an interesting analysis from the washington post that underscores the important part that karl rove plays in the upcoming election

Rove maintains loyalty partly by giving it and partly through fear -- several of his friends did not want to be quoted by name because they said if Rove saw their thoughts in the newspaper, they were not likely to be heard from again.

Republicans would not discuss the issue on the record because they said they hope Bush will win, and Rove's power makes them hesitant to cross him. "It befuddles me," said one Republican official working with the campaign. "If they had never had 9/11, you could understand being where we are, because you could say [Bush] never got out from under the cloud of the disputed election. But they had an opportunity no president gets."

But from the president's rhetoric to his choice of audiences to the efforts of the White House staff, the Rove-Bush focus on the base has been unmistakable, and — along with Iraq — will be a big part of the story of his triumph or loss. Democrats contend, and some Republicans fear, that Rove was attentive to the base for far too long, boxing Bush into a corner where he seems always on the attack in a way that may turn off swing voters.

also, some encouraging (?) news

At this point, Bush would have to defy history to win reelection, since polls show the incumbent in a dead-even race and that a majority of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Facing those bleak facts, well-known Republicans are quietly wondering whether Rove's luck has finally run out. So far, most believe he will wind up making a winner of a troublesome hand that he largely dealt himself.